Association of 24-hour neurological improvement with 3-month outcome
| 3-month mRS score 0–1 (n=76/230) | ||||||||||||
| AUC | 95% CI | Se | Sp | PPV | NPV | OR* | 95% CI | P value | OR† | 95% CI | P value | |
| SNI: yes versus no | 0.76 | 0.71 to 0.82 | 0.57 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 32.14 | 12.63 to 81.76 | <0.0001 | 14.35 | 5.04 to 40.87 | <0.0001 |
| MNI: yes versus no | 0.82 | 0.76 to 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.86 | 0.73 | 0.89 | 20.82 | 10.31 to 42.07 | <0.0001 | 26.57 | 9.52 to 74.19 | <0.0001 |
| NINDS NI: yes versus no | 0.80 | 0.76 to 0.85 | 0.95 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.96 | 35.31 | 12.22 to 101.99 | <0.0001 | 29.82 | 8.85 to 100.51 | <0.0001 |
| ≥25% NI: yes versus no | 0.81 | 0.77 to 0.86 | 0.96 | 0.67 | 0.59 | 0.97 | 49.14 | 14.77 to 163.54 | <0.0001 | 35.50 | 9.59 to 131.38 | <0.0001 |
| ≥50% NI: yes versus no | 0.85 | 0.80 to 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 30.38 | 14.22 to 64.91 | <0.0001 | 20.57 | 8.45 to 50.05 | <0.0001 |
| Normalised change, %‡ | 0.93 | 0.89 to 0.96 | 1.87 | 1.73 to 2.02 | <0.0001 | 1.79 | 1.65 to 1.93 | <0.0001 | ||||
Normalised change, calculated as
and as , if baseline NIHSS–24-hour NIHSS <0.Statistical significance requires p<0.004 after Bonferroni correction.
*All ORs and AUC were estimated without adjustment to baseline explaining variables.
†All ORs and AUC were estimated with adjustment on baseline NIHSS, age, 24-hour ASPECT score and SITS-MOST haemorrhage classification, and on factors identified in the previously prediction model.
‡OR express the risk variation for a 10% increase of the variable.
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; MNI, major neurological improvement defined as 24-hour NIHSS score ≤1 or a 8-point improvement between baseline and 24-hour NIHSS; mRS, modified Rankin Scale (0–6); 3-month excellent outcome defined as mRS 0–1; ≥25% NI, 24-hour neurological improvement by at least 25% from baseline NIHSS; ≥50% NI, 24-hour neurological improvement by at least 50% from baseline NIHSS; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke scale; NINDS NI, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke neurological improvement defined as a 4-point improvement between baseline and 24-hour NIHSS; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Se, sensitivity; SNI, strong neurological improvement defined as 24-hour NIHSS score ≤3; Sp, specificity.
