Discussion
In this large, real-world sample of Veterans with ischaemic stroke/TIA, we found no significant difference in 12-month all-cause mortality when patients obtained either more intensive or less intensive SBP goals by 90 days postcerebrovascular event. Patients with the lowest SBP experienced a twofold increase in 12-month all-cause mortality compared with patients with SBP>140 mm Hg. When considering recurrent vascular events, patients obtaining an SBP<130 mm Hg had a modestly lower risk of cerebrovascular event recurrence. In contrast, we did not detect a similar degree of protection in cardiovascular event recurrence nor in the combined vascular event recurrence.
Cerebrovascular disease-specific studies have yielded equivocal findings about the protective effect of various SBP ranges.2 10 12 38 After 12 months, the SPS3 study reported a non-significant reduction in all stroke, disabling/fatal stroke and the composite of myocardial infarction/vascular death among those with a recent lacunar stroke between groups meeting more intensive compared with less intensive SBP goals.12 In observational data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1998–2004) researchers examined the relationship between baseline SBP categories of <120 mm Hg, 120–140 mm Hg and ≥140 mm Hg and all-cause mortality among 455 participants with self-reported stroke over a 2-year assessment period. Compared with participants with SBP≥140 mm Hg, those with SBP<120 mm Hg had a higher all-cause mortality (HR 1.96: 95% CI 1.13 to 3.39).38
Across these studies and our current work, the lowest tiers of SBP are associated with increased postcerebrovascular event mortality. While some of the observed relationship may be attributable to reverse causality (ie, the sickest patients have the lowest BP), we excluded patients with cancer, end-stage renal disease, and palliative care and adjusted for degree of acute illness encountered during the hospitalisation, burden of medical comorbidities and conditions associated with lower BP (eg, CHF). When treating BP, clinicians also do so with the intention of reducing the likelihood of future vascular events. Here, we report that the relationship between SBP and vascular event recurrence varies on the type of postevent vascular event (ie, cerebrovascular vs cardiovascular vs composite vascular). This is not altogether unexpected when considering that hypertension is more strongly associated with cerebrovascular than cardiovascular events.30 39 In considering recurrent ischaemic strokes, a post hoc analysis performed with PRoFESS data noted that those who maintained SBP values other than 120–129 mm Hg had a lower hazard of stroke compared with patients with an SBP 130–139 mm Hg, after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, prior cerebrovascular event type, vascular risk factors and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score.2 We similarly report that patients with an SBP<130 mm Hg but greater than 105 mm Hg experience less cerebrovascular recurrence than patients with higher SBP. The Blood Pressure and Clinical Outcome in TIA or Stroke observational trial examined the relationship between mean self-measured SBP at 90 days postcerebrovascular event and both stroke recurrence and combined vascular events. At 1-year postcerebrovascular event, the lowest rates of both outcomes occurred among patients with SBP 115–124 mm Hg, suggesting that this may be an optimal SBP target for 90 days postcerebrovascular event to lower stroke recurrence.13 A systematic review and meta-regression analysis of 14 randomised controlled secondary cerebrovascular prevention trials reported that a mean SBP target of <130 mm Hg effectively reduced recurrent cerebrovascular events (p=0.048), compared with those who with SBP between 130 and 140 mm Hg and greater than 140 mm Hg. Data from the RESPECT trial were combined with three other RCTs examining BP control post cerebrovascular event, the risk ratio favoured (RR) a goal BP of <130/80 mm Hg (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.96; p=0.02).9 A similar association between cardiovascular events and reaching SBP of <130 mm Hg compared with the two aforementioned SBP categories was not observed (p=0.291).10
The strengths of our study include the large sample size, use of competing risk models to understand the relationship between fine gradations of SBP seen at 90 days postcerebrovascular event and several important clinical outcomes, inclusion of both ischaemic stroke and TIA patients and patient comorbidities that were routinely excluded from secondary cerebrovascular prevention trials though routinely managed in real-world healthcare settings, and multivariable analysis with statistical controls for many potential confounders.
Limitations of the study should also be noted. As our observational study consisting of largely older, white Veteran men, both our ability to infer causality and study generalisability are limited. While we cannot control for the effects of unmeasured variables, we report on SBP values obtained during routine care of hypertension among patients with ischaemic stroke and TIA. Furthermore, while providers are encouraged to incorporate recommendations regarding ‘goal’ BP, our current study cannot comment on whether BP was actively managed by providers to reach specific BP thresholds. Next, we focused on SBP obtained over the 90 days postdischarge and subsequent mortality and vascular outcomes, we cannot generalise to other time points (eg, at time of discharge). Also, we used all available SBP readings; however, most stroke/TIA patients had 1–3 readings within the 90 days postdischarge. While the number of BP readings were not as standardised as would be seen in an RCT, we would not expect the same degree of rigour in a real-world analysis of hypertensive stroke/TIA patients who were diagnosed and care for by various types of clinicians. Additionally, we cannot control for bias that providers may have when determining who should return for more frequent BP measurements.
Our study included a wide range of ischaemic stroke and TIA patients; however, unlike other studies,2 12 we did not have information on stroke subtypes. We did not include measures of antihypertensive medication or other treatments to control SBP. A systematic review and meta-analysis of BP reduction in stroke prevention trials did not demonstrate a relationship between class of antihypertensive medication and recurrent stroke, suggesting that the BP is more important than the pharmacotherapy used to obtain that BP.10 Stroke/TIA patients were excluded from this current analysis if they were receiving four or more antihypertensive medications, as these patients likely represent those with the most severe hypertension and treatment-resistant group of patients.21
We were unable to adjust for variables which are not routinely available within administrative data, including measures of functional disability (eg, modified Rankin scale) and neurological status (eg, NIHSS) at discharge, severity of conditions (eg, dementia) which may have led to reverse causality between SBP and mortality, the provider type (eg, vascular neurologist) who coded a stroke/TIA diagnosis and reasons why patients may have received more or less SBP measurements. In our modelling, we did include neurological deficits for which ICD-9 codes were available and have been used to identify stroke patients using electronic health record data40; of these, hemiplegia was found both to be common and an important predictor of vascular event recurrence. While hemiplegia is not specific to stroke, given the composition of our cohort, it is likely that hemiplegia is attributable to a cerebrovascular event. Also, we adjusted for the presence of conditions, which may have led to reverse causality; however, given the larger associated noted between SBP and mortality compared with SBP and vascular outcomes, reverse causality likely contributed to some of our current findings. Of note, many studies included in the aforementioned systematic review and meta-regression analysis10 excluded patients from clinical trial participation (eg, prior ipsilateral carotid endarterectomy)5 10 12 were included in our real-world data analysis.